Launching TK The Contrarian On Substack: Timing Is Everything
A new investment research journey begins from a seasoned researcher, investor, and trader.
We are at a palatable point of excitement in the markets, as the pendulum has swung too far one way, and almost all investors are crowded into very crowded trades.
This backdrop offers significant opportunity so long as an investor/trader can remain even keeled, and then take advantage of the volatility.
From other researchers and writers, I have heard good things about Substack, so I am planting a flag here to experience, experiment, and hopefully capitalize on another unique market opportunity.
Travis's Intro Note
Sunday, February, 25th, 2024 is when I started working on this project and this piece, and my goal was to publish it on Thursday, February 29th, 2024 to mark the leap year(yes it is a leap year), yet life got in the way, and I am writing this post on the evening of March 10th, 2024. The reason I started writing this post was that I had a palpable sense of enthusiasm, energy, and excitement for the unique point that we are at in the financial markets, and this smorgasbord of emotions has only amplified the last two weeks.
On this note, two weekends ago, I wrote a piece for my group at The Contrarian, and I opened with this paragraph.
“After over 30 years investing and trading, I can feel another historic inflection point on the horizon. Similar to past phase changes at inflection points, volatility is outsized, offering both substantial opportunity and pitfalls for traders, while serving to confuse longer-term oriented investors.
The backdrop is literally giving me energy, similar to how I felt energized in the first half of 2020, the second-half of 2008, and the first-half of 2009, and in 1999 and 2000, though I wish I could have my youth back from back then. This is in part while I have been writing more, for our group, and publicly, as I try to channel this energy into digital thoughts that can be debated and discussed into actionable investment objectives, as well as providing a time stamped chronicle of events.”
Make no mistake, the extremes today in the markets are very rare historically, creating rare opportunity, and that is one reason I wanted to launch TK The Contrarian on Substack.
Part of this effort will be to center writing for some of my members from WTKTheContrarian, as I have heard many positive comments from my peers about Substack’s platform.
Additionally, one of my goals this year is to start a podcast, documenting conversations with some influential investors that I have on a daily and weekly basis, and I thought this could be a nice dual home for that endeavor.
Writing over the years has been extraordinarily beneficial, as it focuses thoughts, and encourages debate and discussion, and I want to continue that process on this platform, which is the proverbial home for terrific, independent writing and thinking.
With regard to our credentials, we have had some tremendous success with investments over the years, with Antero Resources (AR) being a prominent example of a generational opportunity, which was documented here, here, and here. We were also on the money seeing Peabody Energy (BTU) through its inflection point, and we were touting the merits of Too Cheap To Ignore Occidental Petroleum (OXY) before Buffett was involved. There have been many other successes, including RH (RH) in 2016, John Deere (DE), and even Equitrans (ETRN) last year.
Along with the successes, there have been tremendous challenges at times, and though the journey over the last decade has not been easy, as we have had our difficult times too, it has been incredibly rewarding.
My goal is to continue to refine the research process, expanding the proverbial net, so to speak, while honing in on the small handful of ideas that can really make or break an investment year of performance.
For the logo here, I have chosen a customized turtle, as I think patience is needed in both investing and trading. There is also an inference to the famous turtle traders.
What Should Readers Expect
What should readers expect to find on TK The Contrarian?
There will be macroeconomic discussions, in-depth talk about Portfolio strategy, and deep dives on individual sectors and individual stocks.
There are going to be multiple tiers, including a free tier, a monthly/yearly fee tier, a founder’s members tier that will include a zoom podcast, and eventually a pro-tier for institutional investors, including family offices, RIA’s, and hedge funds.
Join Us On The Journey, And Remember The Journey Is Often More Fun That The Destination
Over the years of writing publicly, I have found a tremendous sense of purpose, joy, and gratitude in our investment research. And, again, this process has not always been cream and berries, however, our public track record speaks volumes at this point, including reviews, and independent investor rankings.
On that note, I will close with one review from a lifetime subscriber on WTKTheContrarian (this particular service is offered at $75,000, so obviously TK The Contrarian on Substack is at a much lower price point), which is a preview of what will be discussed in TK The Contrarian.
The lifetime membership to Trading Insights is the absolute best value investment you will ever make. I can speak with full confidence and real experience about what this service has meant to me and I am sure it will mean to you as well. The knowledge and wisdom WTK has to teach the most inexperienced investor like myself or the most experienced investor is nothing short of amazing. Think about going to college to learn about finance and spending the many years of your time along with tens of thousands of dollars and still be left by yourself to figure out the markets. This service is the best of all worlds for anyone looking to invest your own money. The price is truly worth many more times than you are paying to have access to one of the best minds in the business and a genuine good person. You will be getting a dividend the rest of your life for this one time investment that is truly priceless. I am so thankful for WTK offering up his service to someone like myself who has zero investment skills and experience but after 18 months now has the confidence to manage my own money and do it at a high level thanks to this service. If you have made it to this page and have any reservations please let my experience take away the risk you feel, it is a no brainer to do the lifetime membership.
Again, similar to what I have been able to do in the past, I am hoping to build a community on Substack that enhances the investment process, and I am looking forward to the reach of Substack, combined with the publishing tools, and the ability to write directly to an audience as I have done previously without editorial oversight.
In summary, the journey continues. As I largely do this on my own, meaning a one-man operation after a long, distinguished, professional investment career, forgive me for any growing pains as I learn this platform.
If subscribers that are ported over from my own website have any issues, send me a message, and we will work through those together.
For past connoisseurs of my research, you know what to expect. If you have subscribed to my research services previously, send me a message, here or at travis@kolduscontrarian.com, and I might just have a special offer waiting for your inquiry.
And, as anyone who has followed me for a long time will attest, my writing frequency ebbs and flows based on the opportunity set.
In closing, right now is one of the richest opportunity sets for investors that I have seen in the past decade, so let’s get to taking advantage of this situation.
Reach out with any questions by sending me a message here, an email to travis@kolduscontrarian.com, or exploring any of my other research offerings.
Best of luck to all on this journey at this very unique time in the markets,
Travis