Weekly Stock Market Recap For Week Ending 3/14/2025

Quietly under the surface a capital rotation is happening once again...

For most investors: 99% of good investing is doing nothing, the other 1% is how you behave when the world is going crazy.

- Morgan Housel

“Not losing big is the single most important factor for winning big. As a speculator, losing is not a choice, but how much you lose is.”

- Mark Minervini

Construction Hats Needed - Adjustment In Process

Sentiment in the broader U.S. equity market is pretty bearish here, so that would argue for a bounce. On the other hand, the broader equity market decline has been relatively tame in nature, constrained in a sense to certain areas of the market that had really been in-favor the past couple of years, specifically momentum growth stocks and strategies, and the largest market capitalization growth stocks that reached valuation extremes, think Costco COST 0.00%↑ here, reminiscent of the 1970’s Nifty 50 era.

Thinking out loud, there are a lot of similarities to the calendar year 2000 here. Building on this narrative, during the year 2000, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY 0.00%↑ peaked on February 8th, 2000. From there, until February 28th, 2000, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell 10%. SPY then made a new all time high on March 24th, 2000, a span of 18 trading days. Think about this for a minute, and all the twists and turns that we saw that year (in 2000) as an investor ponders what is coming ahead.

Weekly Stock Market Recap For The Week Ending 3/14/2025

While it was a rough week in the broader U.S. equity market with a fourth consecutive weekly close lower, our Model Portfolios outperformed, driven higher by many equities that did not correlate with the market in a good way, however we had our bumps with certain stocks too. With regard to our selected barometers, the iShares MSCI EAFE EFA 0.00%↑ index declined 0.9%, and EFA is higher by 10.7% year-to-date. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM 0.00%↑ gained 0.4% and it is up 6.6% YTD. Energy equities gained as the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE 0.00%↑ gained 2.7%, with XLE now up 4.8% YTD. Bonds inched higher, with the iShares 20+Year Treasury ETF TLT 0.00%↑ up 0.1%, and TLT is now up 4.0% YTD. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA 0.00%↑ lost 3.0% for the week, and DIA is now down 2.2% YTD. The Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ 0.00%↑ lost 2.5% last week, and QQQ is now down 6.2% YTD. Small-caps continued their struggle with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM 0.00%↑ down 1.5% for the week, and IWM off 8.2% YTD. And, after leading earlier this year, the ARK Innovation ETF ARKK 0.00%↑ lost 6.2% for the week, with ARKK down 13.4% YTD.

Looking at our targeted equities, on the positive side of the ledger, Redfin RDFN 0.00%↑ gained 83.9% after Rocket Companies RKT 0.00%↑ bid to acquire Redfin, and RDFN is now up 36.0% YTD. Hallador Energy HNRG 0.00%↑ gained 26.5% for the week, with HNRG down 3.0% YTD. DoubleGold $DBG.V gained 14.1% for the week, with DBG.V shares now up 118.9% YTD. Antero Resources AR 0.00%↑ gained 11.7% with AR now up 7.2% YTD. AES Corp AES 0.00%↑ gained 9.4% for the week, with AES down 2.8% YTD. U.S. Steel X 0.00%↑ gained 7.7% last week, with X shares now up 14.9% YTD. Pantheon $PTHRF gained 7.4% for the week, with PTHRF now up 140.5% YTD. On the negative side of the ledger, RH RH 0.00%↑ lost 14.2%, declining for the seventh week out of eight, and RH shares are now down 42.8% YTD. Enovix ENVX 0.00%↑ lost 11.2% for the week, with ENVX now down 29.6% YTD. Leggett and Platt LEG 0.00%↑ lost 5.3% for the week, with LEG down 15.0% YTD.

Turning to the Model Portfolios, they outperformed last week, as the average stock that struggled the last couple of years is now gaining a tailwind, while the largest market capitalization stocks and growth favorites that surged the last two years plus are now experiencing a headwind. The Bet The Farm Model Portfolio remains in cash, and it is up 0.8% YTD from interest. The Best Ideas Model Portfolio gained 9.2% last week, and this Portfolio is now up 4.8% YTD versus SPY’s 4.0% loss. For reference, the Best Ideas Model Portfolio gained 20.6% in 2024, lost 6.8% in 2023, gained 41.9% in 2022, compared to a 18.2% SPY loss, the Best Ideas Model Portfolio gained 105.4% in 2021, and 51.1% in 2020. The Stuck On Yield Model Portfolio gained 1.6% last week, and this Portfolio is now up 9.5% YTD even with XIFR’s implosion (XIFR looks very attractive here as total return candidate IMO). For 2024, the SOY Portfolio gained 13.5%, this Portfolio gained 28.0% in 2023, and in 2022 the SOY Portfolio gained 34.3% versus an 18.2% SPY loss. The long/short Contrarian All Weather Portfolio gained 10.2% last week, and YTD the long/short Model Portfolio is now higher by 7.2% YTD, with SPY down 4.0%, as Mr. Market is once again teasing market normalization. In 2024, this Portfolio struggled on a relative basis, up 0.7%, similar to its relative and absolute struggles in 2023 (which was a worse year for this Portfolio compared to 2024), after an outstanding 2022. Uncle Tony's Model Portfolio gained 5.1% last week, and this Portfolio is now up 7.1% YTD. For 2024, Uncle Tony’s Model Portfolio gained 22.0%, after a relative struggle in 2023, where Uncle Tony’s Portfolio finished 2023 higher by a meager 1.1% after gaining 38.2% in calendar 2022. The FAM DCA Portfolio gained 3.4% last week, and the FAM DCA Portfolio is now higher by 10.1% YTD. In closing, my conviction that we are going to see a repeat of 2000-2007 in the markets is resolute, perhaps rhyming with Nifty 50 Era of the 1970’s, with the next phase of the capital rotation likely to be bigger than what we witnessed from 2020-2022. 2023 and 2024 together look a lot like 1998 and 1999, particularly in the narrowness of market breadth. Overall, price action continues to be choppy and challenging though, as Mr. Market is not going to make things easy, per the usual. Thus, it is imperative to stay even keeled.

Thankful and grateful for all in the group, Travis.

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AR, BTU, EQT, AM, EXE, TLT puts, X, NEM, RH, CLF, TGB, RRC, TECK, HCC, KMI, OXY, CVE, BABA, WBA, PXT.TO LEG, WDS, CNX, WBD, BCS, WFC, DB, CTRA, OVV, XOM, CVX, UNG, ENVX, AER, RDFN, ET, SLB, Z, LC, PAAS, GOLD, SLV, SIL, CPG, PL, AAL, and SPG and I am long Paladin Energy And Pantheon Resources and I am long the positions in the contrarian portfolios and I am short AAPL, NVDA, QQQ, SPY, and XLK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.

Every investor's situation is different. Positions can change at any time without warning. Please do your own due diligence and consult with your financial advisor, if you have one, before making any investment decisions. The author is not acting in an investment adviser capacity. The author's opinions expressed herein address only select aspects of potential investment in securities of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for comprehensive investment analysis. The author recommends that potential and existing investors conduct thorough investment research of their own, including a detailed review of the companies' SEC filings. Any opinions or estimates constitute the author's best judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.